Last Civic Election Commentary

Ward 2 Election Result Analysis

Voter turnout in 2009 was down throughout the city by 22.2% compared to 2006. In ward 2, the drop was almost identical (21.9%). The final count for the two candidates in ward 2 was 682 (or 66%) for the incumbent, Guy With Money (GWM), and 352 for me (34%).


How Can a Challenger Win in Ward 2?

There are 14 polls in ward 2, at eight polling places. I won only one poll (number 8), and one polling place (the Ukrainian Catholic Hall - 68 to 60). In order to beat GWM, I needed to win the two polls at the Ukrainian Catholic Hall and the three polls at Sacred Heart Cathedral by large margins (gaining at least 66% of the total votes cast - a feat achievable only with a large turnout, of primarily disgruntled citizens, since this area is neglected by GWM); lose by less than 10% at the two polls in Hazeldell and Nordale; win both the (small) poll at the YWCA and the advance poll; and get at least 45% of the votes at the six polls split equally among Northcote Manor, Carment Court, and Sherman Towers. [There’s no way for a challenger to beat GWM at these large PA Housing Authority apartments, simply because GWM has lavished their senescent residents with free meals, fruit, small appliances, and elaborate Christmas parties for many years, and he effectively courts the executive members of the three residents’ associations by attending as many of their meetings as he can.] Although these six polls include the surrounding neighbourhoods, turnout among the neighbours is minimal.


Failure on Every Front - Incumbent Wins

The advance poll was an accurate predictor of the final result: 66% for GWM to 34% for me. The [tiny] window of opportunity I thought I saw slammed shut an hour before the polls closed, when I realized the combined turnout at the west side churches was down over 30% from the last election. At the same time, there was very little change in the participating electorate at the six polls in the three Housing Authority buildings. In short, my potential supporters failed to show, while GWM’s core supporters did. The slim win at the Ukrainian Catholic Hall (8 votes) was easily negated by a 24-vote loss at the Cathedral (96 to 72, representing 43% support for me). Hazeldell and Nordale were disaster zones: I got 35% in Hazeldell, and just 27% in Nordale. Although the latter area’s landed gentry could hardly be expected to prefer an egalitarian, participatory democratic environmental crusader over a GWM who manages three shopping malls, I had not foreseen that the positive response I received at Hazeldell doorsteps had a severely diminished impact on people’s election-day activities. As if that wasn’t bad enough, I lost the YWCA poll 22 to 9 (giving me just 29% there), and the voters at the Housing Authority buildings (who turned out to be 40.8% of all ward 2 voters) favoured GWM over me by overwhelming numbers: 72% to 28% at Northcote Manor [where the highly vocal, totally-biased, energetic sycophant who presides over their residents’ association was surely instrumental in producing that numerical debacle], 74% to 26% at Sherman Towers [stunning because those two polls also include voters living on my home street], and 76% to 24% at Carment Court [whose residents received so many boxes of peaches from GWM in September they still hadn’t disposed of the empties by the time I got to their annual general meeting on October 1]. Most of the residents in these apartment buildings are seniors (the remainder are physically disabled), with their rent geared to their income, so the regular appearance of GWM doing his Daddy Warbucks philanthropic routine is a potent retained image when municipal election day rolls around.


Would I Do it Again . . . .

Yes - but I’d spend more time separating the truly undecided voters from the overwhelming number who refused to cast a ballot, then go back to the former at least two more times; find the money for some radio and weekly print ads; and save my pamphlets for people who actually intended to vote, rather than leave them at every household.